Strength Returns as the Biggest Overhang Lifts

It was a much needed bounce across the market this week with the majority of assets posting strong gains. Bitcoin jumped 7.4%, Ethereum 13%, and Solana 14%, but the real strength came from the revenue generating tokens we have been tracking, with AERO, HYPE, and CARDS all posting gains between 33% and 48% on the week. Just as importantly, Bitcoin held the line at $60,000, a level that had been looking increasingly threatening for a breakdown into the $50,000s. Holding that floor through a difficult stretch is a meaningful show of strength.

The inflation data late last week came in hot, though this was largely down to short term measures such as oil prices driven by the recent geopolitical tensions. And that is where the biggest development comes in, this week a peace deal was reached between the US and Iran, removing the single largest macro overhang that has been weighing on markets all year. With that pressure now lifting, oil eases, inflation expectations soften, and the path opens for a more constructive environment. There is a lot to dive into below.

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SpaceX Defies the Consensus — A Confidence Signal for Markets

Ahead of the SpaceX debut last week, we published a piece in Alpha taking the contrarian view. The consensus was overwhelmingly that this would be a classic sell the news event that rippled into broader markets. We laid out the case for the other side, anchored on three points: an extraordinarily thin 4% float meeting demand running 3-4x oversubscribed, a forced buying catalyst on the horizon through Nasdaq-100 inclusion, and an incentive structure where the most powerful players in the world all needed a successful debut ahead of their own listings.

That is exactly how it played out. SpaceX IPO price was at $135 and has since rallied to $222, up over 60% in just days. The thin float and overwhelming demand created precisely the violent move higher the setup pointed toward, while the crowded trade positioned for a sell off was left chasing.

The broader significance goes well beyond a single stock. A debut of this magnitude opening strong rather than selling off is a genuine vote of confidence in the wider market. It signals healthy risk-on appetite and a willingness from large capital to step in and buy at a moment when sentiment has been cautious. Paired with the US-Iran peace deal easing one of the largest macro overhangs of the year, the conditions are quietly shifting more constructive than the bearish consensus would suggest. When the biggest IPO in history is met with this kind of demand, it tells you investors are far more willing to take on risk than the mood of the past month implied.

US-Iran Peace Deal — The Biggest Overhang Lifts

After months of conflict and uncertainty, the United States and Iran have officially reached a peace deal, with both sides declaring an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts including Lebanon. The official signing ceremony is set for Friday 19 June in Switzerland. Adding serious legitimacy to it, the UK, France, Germany, and Italy are all reportedly ready to lift sanctions on Iran in the wake of the agreement.

Markets responded positively, though crypto lagged slightly relative to equities. Bitcoin jumped around 3% on the news, a solid move but more muted than some expected given the scale of the development. The more important point is what this removes rather than the immediate price reaction. This conflict has been one of the single largest macro overhangs capping risk assets all year, and that weight is now lifting. The downstream effects are easing tensions take pressure off oil prices, which feeds directly into lower inflation expectations. Softer inflation gives the Federal Reserve more room to move and makes their job considerably easier heading into upcoming decisions. Lower oil, cooler inflation, and a more accommodative Fed is about as clean a tailwind as risk assets could ask for. While the initial crypto reaction was modest, the removal of this overhang clears the path for a more constructive environment in the weeks ahead.

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Upcoming FOMC — Warsh's First Test

Tomorrow marks Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair, and expectations are firmly for no changes to rates. The interest sits less in the decision itself and more in the messaging. Warsh is largely viewed as hawkish, but he has spoken before about not putting too much weight on short term inflation drivers like geopolitical shocks, which, with a war just ending and oil pressure easing, could see him strike a more constructive tone than the market is bracing for.

That is the key dynamic heading in. We are seeing some de-risking ahead of the meeting as participants position cautiously ahead of his first appearance as Chair. But that caution cuts both ways, if Warsh delivers any optimism on his read of the economy and the outlook, it could be a genuine positive catalyst for risk assets that the market is not currently positioned for. One to watch closely. 

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Altcoins Finding Strength

Despite the cautious sentiment hanging over the broader market, the current environment has actually been one of the best we have seen for finding profitable trades. When the crowd is fearful and sidelined, it becomes far easier to identify the genuine winners and get positioned before everyone else piles in. Over the past month we have been on the right side of a number of strong moves, and it comes down to the same approach every time, line up fundamentals with the chart and act before the market catches on.

CARDS is the clearest example, up 214% from our first mention. That move came down to a genuine product-market fit paired with on-chain metrics that were absolutely ripping, revenue, volume, and user growth all climbing while the price had not yet caught up. We flagged the divergence between what the business was producing and where the token was valued, and the gap has been closing ever since.

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Then there is the perp DEX category with HYPE and LIT. Hyperliquid made a new all time high two weeks back, was the strongest token to bounce this week, and now sits within 5% of a fresh price discovery breakout. It has continued to prove itself as the dominant force in on-chain trading and the standout performer of the cycle. LIT has followed closely behind, up 110% since May. That was a move we anticipated by looking closely at the underlying metrics, the volumes, the buybacks, and the open interest that both LIT and HYPE were putting up, and recognising the valuation gap between the two could close. As LIT continues to capture a larger share of the perp DEX market, that thesis keeps playing out.

NEAR has been another standout, identified early for its narrative positioning across privacy, AI, and quantum resistance. It is now up 200% from its low. The message is while much of the market waits for confidence to return, now is the best time to position based on fundamentals. The winners are easier to spot in this environment than in a raging bull market, and the asymmetry of getting in early, before sentiment shifts and the crowd returns is exactly where the real profit is made. 

Bitmine Brings Ethereum's Version of the Saylor Playbook

Bitmine just closed an offering of 3.5 million shares of 9.50% Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock, raising approximately $273.8 million in net proceeds, with the shares beginning trading on the NYSE under $BMNP. In simple terms, this is Bitmine borrowing money from investors to fund its Ethereum strategy, and in exchange those investors receive a steady dividend. The shares carry a $100 par value but were sold for $80, putting the effective yield around 12%, paid weekly. The interesting nuance is how it differs from Strategy's STRC. Where Saylor's STRC actively adjusts its rate each month to keep the price trading near par, Bitmine's is fixed rate — they will not tweak the yield to manage the price, so it will be fascinating to watch where $BMNP actually trades and what its effective yield settles at. What makes the Ethereum angle different is that ETH is a productive asset, Bitmine's projected annualised staking rewards of around $219 million generate real recurring cash flow that directly supports those dividend payments, something Bitcoin treasury companies cannot replicate since BTC does not natively yield. The trade-off is volatility, Bitcoin is the steadier asset, while Ethereum carries more risk but throws off income. 

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