Short Term Fear, Long Term Signals
As Q1 wraps up, we head into Q2 with continued uncertainty looming over all markets. All eyes are on the potential implications from Trump’s upcoming “Liberation Tariff Day”, keeping risk assets on edge. Bitcoin is hovering around $85,000 and Ethereum near $1,900, both seeing a mild rebound today, but still coming off their worst Q1 performance since 2018 (BTC -11.82%, ETH -45.41%). Meanwhile, Gold has surged to a record $3,114 as investors pivot toward safety.
But despite the noise, performance since U.S. election day tells a different story. The S&P 500 is down 4%, Gold is up 13%, and Bitcoin leads with a 20% gain, once again proving its strength. The pendulum can swing quickly, this week Institutional interest is ramping up, and we’ve identified encouraging signs across hidden on-chain and macro indicators pointing toward a more positive setup ahead.
Weekly Price Update
Bitcoin and Global Liquidity: The M2 Signal
Bitcoin’s performance has consistently shown a strong correlation with global liquidity, and the M2 money supply is a key metric for tracking this. M2 includes all physical currency in circulation and readily accessible funds.
Historically, there’s been a 70–110 day lag between a rise in M2 and a meaningful move in Bitcoin, with a strong 82% correlation after 90 days. This suggests that Bitcoin has strong odds to respond to the current liquidity injection by May 2025.
77 Day Offset Chart
Bitcoin has historically followed M2 liquidity growth with a 2–3 month lag, and the current setup with a 77 day offset suggests upward momentum could begin as early as this week.
108 Day Offset Chart
- The 108-day offset shows a tighter alignment with past price action, hinting that Bitcoin may soon mirror M2’s recent breakout by mid-to-late May.
Tariffs, Trade Wars and Bitcoin's Risk Profile
Market anxiety is running high ahead of April 2, what Trump has named “Liberation Day”, when he is expected to be announcing a new wave of aggressive U.S. trade policy. While these tariffs are largely a negotiation tactic, with hopes of deals being struck before April 2, failure to reach agreements could lead to further market weakness.Trump is expected to announce these reciprocal tariffs on up to 25 countries and has also threatened secondary sanctions on Russian oil exports, escalating tensions with both economic and geopolitical implications. His latest comment saying he “couldn’t care less” if automakers raise prices, signals a disregard for inflation concerns, further unsettling markets.
All financial markets along with Crypto have felt the pressure. There’s a strong argument that much of this fear is already priced in, anticipating poor news ahead. But downside risk is there if tariffs roll out as expected and inflation or trade frictions worsen, Bitcoin could retest support near $70K. The market is in “wait-and-see” mode, with Trump’s announcement likely to set the tone for crypto’s next move.
Institutional Buys Continue
“The most sophisticated long term Bitcoin accumulators are excited about this dip. We see it as an irrational sell-off due to short term factors.” – BlackRock
So who exactly are these "sophisticated" investors, and why do they see this differently from the rest of the market?
These are the institutions, billionaires, and long time market participants who’ve lived through Bitcoin’s brutal cycles, 30–40% drawdowns followed by all time highs. They’ve seen this before.
Maybe they know something we don’t , like governments quietly planning to accumulate more BTC. Maybe they just recognise this for what it is, the market overreacting to short term macro noise. Or maybe they’re looking at the growing wave of institutional adoption and see Bitcoin gearing up for global legitimacy, and want to front run that next move.
Either way, they’re not selling. They’re buying. Because to them, this dip isn’t fear. It's an opportunity. A bet on asymmetric risk/reward and a long term thesis they believe in, and so do we.
- Bitcoin reserves on exchanges continue to deplete, largely driven by these large institutional buys which are long term positions that are reducing sell pressure and tightening supply.
Known Dip Buyers
While the market hesitates, institutions are stepping in with size. MicroStrategy added over 13,900 BTC in March, taking its total to 506,137 BTC ($44B). Marathon Digital announced a $2B equity raise to grow its holdings beyond the current 27,562 BTC. GameStop joined the movement too, its board just approving Bitcoin as a treasury asset, raising $1.3B to purchase Bitcoin.
Saylor's Consistent Buying
Tether boosted its reserves with 8,888 BTC in Q1, bringing its total to 92,646 BTC. Meanwhile, U.S. spot ETFs pulled in $1B in fresh flows late March, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, now holding 570,582 BTC. The signal is clear, many institutions view this dip not as danger, but as opportunity, and they’re accumulating accordingly.
Larry Fink Just Put Bitcoin on the Global Stage
When Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, says the U.S. dollar risks losing reserve status to Bitcoin, the world should take note.
His warning isn’t just about America’s overspending, it’s about global trust. The US debt has rocketed to $36 Trillion in 2025 and this year, U.S. interest payments are set to pass $952 billion, overtaking defense spending. If nothing changes, by 2030, mandatory programs and debt payments could consume all federal revenue. That turns into not just a U.S. problem, but a threat to the entire financial system. The U.S. dollar remains the core of global trade and reserves, but its dominance depends on confidence. And if that confidence breaks, alternatives will rise.
Bitcoin offers something the dollar doesn’t. A fixed supply, no endless printing, full transparency, and no single party in control. Fink, who dismissed Bitcoin in 2017, is now behind the biggest spot Bitcoin ETF in history. BlackRock’s IBIT has surpassed $50 billion in assets, with over $40 billion in inflows, making it the most successful ETF debut ever.
So what happens if the shift truly begins? U.S. debt is already at $36 trillion and growing fast, on track to hit $40 trillion by 2028. That kind of trajectory could push individuals, institutions and entire nations to seek alternatives to the dollar. China still bans crypto, but a deepening dollar crisis or trade war, this could shift. If China or Russia began accumulating even 200,000 BTC, just $16.8 billion at today’s prices, it would be a small move relative to their $3 trillion in reserves, but a massive signal to the world. Over time, trade deals could even begin settling in Bitcoin, especially between countries looking to bypass dollar rails. It’s not an overnight flip, but it’s no longer far fetched. If trust in fiat cracks, Bitcoin isn’t just ready, it’s waiting.
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