Bitcoin Breakout!
Optimism has carried through from last week, with the crypto market having its strongest week since February. Bitcoin has led the charge, continuing to separate itself from traditional markets and making its attempt to become a true safe haven asset, up 11.05% and hitting $93,600 USD today. The total crypto market cap is up 11.53%, adding over $300B in value.
Profits have started to trickle into alts, with many leading tokens posting 20%+ gains in the past 24 hours. And in a major shift, Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $1.2B in inflows over the past two days, reversing April’s lull. What’s interesting is these ETFs are traded on the same stock market that opened the week down 2%, while equities are being sold off, Bitcoin is being bought. That divergence says a lot. We’ve been flagging signs of this trend change for the past two weeks, let’s break it all down.
Weekly Price Update
Bitcoin Analysis and Current Structure
Bitcoin is now in its most structurally bullish position since pre-election. Two weeks ago, we flagged a “break in structure from a 3-month downtrend” and that shift has held, with BTC price now up 13% since the breakout. Yesterday in UpTrade Alpha, we noted that “the $88K resistance level has previously capped upside momentum… but the sell wall at that level has been significantly chipped away.” We added that “Looking ahead, we believe Bitcoin is primed for a breakout into the $90Ks.”
Over the past 48 hours, multiple key resistance levels have been broken, validating the trend reversal we’ve been tracking. After the Tariff Pause we mentioned that “if no major negative headlines emerge, we believe the momentum is likely to continue.” Since then, sentiment has stayed neutral to positive and price action has responded accordingly.
$92K was also identified as a large sell zone, and Bitcoin just sliced through it to hit $93K with conviction. If BTC can hold above this level, we think the bulls are clearly back in control. As mentioned earlier this month, “it’s clear there’s major capital sitting on the sidelines, ready to deploy.” That capital now appears to be stepping in. Momentum is back on the side of buyers, and the market outlook remains strongly optimistic.
Global M2 Money Supply Trend Continues
The M2 money supply vs Bitcoin (84-day lag) is an indicator we’ve been covering quite frequently over the past couple of months, and the analysis appears to be playing out well. Bitcoin has continued to follow the trajectory of M2 with a consistent lag, reinforcing the idea that global liquidity remains a key driver of price action. With M2 trending higher, the model points to a potential move above $100k in mid-2025 if this correlation holds.
Sector Performance - Trending Narratives
The latest 7-day sector performance chart highlights extreme market strength, with capital flowing aggressively into high-beta and speculative categories, a classic sign of a risk-on environment. AI (+29.3%) and Gaming (+27%) led the charge. Notably, memecoins surged 18.4%, reflecting a resurgence of speculative appetite, while AI agents (part of the broader AI category) saw major inflows, echoing their role as one of the most volatile and narrative-driven sectors in the previous cycle.
This shift signals that more risk-on capital is entering the market, often a indicator to broader alt-season dynamics. Historically, such strong relative performance in high-volatility sectors (like memecoins and AI agents) tends to act as a leading indicator for renewed retail & developer interest, liquidity inflows, and sustained runs across these narratives. Last year’s cycle followed a this progression: capital rotated from Bitcoin → AI → Memecoins → Utility & AI Agent tokens, each wave feeding the next. With this pattern now potentially re-emerging, the recent breakout across AI, and memecoins could be the early stages of another full-spectrum rally.
Stablecoins Surge
Stable Coins, arguably the greatest innovation from Crypto outside of Bitcoin, are currently at an all time high, with total supply up 25.13% since it’s April 2022 high. A clear signal of massive “dry powder” building up on the sidelines, positioned to flood into the market. The spike reflects exploding adoption of stablecoins like USDT and USDC as go to vehicles for on-chain transactions, cross border transfers, and DeFi participation.
Their liquidity, stability, and borderless utility make stablecoins an ideal fit for both retail and institutions, which is helping expand the adoption of crypto. Historically, this kind of stablecoin growth has preceded major rallies in Bitcoin and altcoins, and with billions now sitting idle on-chain, large capital is ready to move fast on the first sign of momentum.
Regulatory Support
“I strongly support lawmakers working to provide regulatory certainty for dollar-backed stablecoins and the digital asset market. This is a tremendous opportunity for economic growth and innovation.” – Donald Trump
Trump’s endorsement of regulatory clarity for stablecoins marks a turning point for the digital asset space. His backing signals a bullish shift in political view, one that can mainstream adoption and increase institutional capital inflows. Regulatory certainty has long been the missing link, and Trump’s support helps to bridge that gap.
Jerome Powell has also hinted at movement in the same direction, further positioning stablecoins to solidify their dominance as a foundational layer of the future financial system
Stablecoin Transactions vs Visa Payments
A recent Bitwise report revealed a disruptive shift: stablecoins processed over $14 trillion in transactions in 2024, surpassing Visa’s $13 trillion. It’s a clear signal of their surging dominance in global payments and the accelerating relevance of crypto rails in mainstream finance.
Decoupling of Stocks vs Crypto
While global markets have come under pressure, a few assets have started to separate themselves. Over the past 12 months, Gold has recently pushed to all-time highs, now up 44.6%, while Bitcoin has closely tracked its performance, gaining 41.1% in the same period.
In contrast, the S&P 500 has returned just 4.2%, while Ethereum and the DeFi sector are down over 45%. With this kind of divergence playing out, it’s likely that every serious money manager is taking notice. If Bitcoin continues to behave like a true macro hedge, the implications could be significant.