Extreme Fear Has Been Reached
Levels of extreme fear have hit the crypto markets, with Bitcoin dropping to $86,000 - its lowest price since November. The broader market followed yesterday, with Ethereum going down 18% and Solana down 12%. To make things worse, we’ve seen another wave of liquidations, wiping out $1.5B in the last 24 hours. Considering we already had a massive liquidation event earlier this month, this has been a brutal time for investors.
This dip follows the Bybit exchange hack (the largest in crypto history) where $1.4B in Ethereum was stolen. Sentiment was already weak, and now U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows, marking 10 out of the last 11 days in the red. On top of that, macroeconomic uncertainty is growing, with the potential for a U.S.-China trade war under Trump’s proposed tariffs adding more pressure to the markets. We’ll break down what this all means, how these events are shaping sentiment, and where opportunities could emerge next.
Weekly Price Update
Market Dip Analysis
Bitcoin has broken below $88K, confirming a bearish trend as it struggles to reclaim the critical $92K level. Until this zone is regained, BTC remains at risk of further downside, with momentum clearly leaning bearish. Bitcoin dominance sits around 61%, but this correction could mark the beginning of its decline as capital rotates out of BTC and into other assets. Adding to the pressure, Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $500 million in net daily outflows yesterday and $937.9 million today (biggest daily outflow ever), signalling institutional investors taking profits or hedging against further losses. With BTC now down 20% from its all-time high, it looks to have entered a technical bear zone, heightening the risk of deeper corrections.
Meanwhile, market-wide liquidations continue to mount, with Bybit facing $570.89 million in long liquidations over the past 24 hours. The exchange then began repaying borrowed ETH and some have even speculated they may have had a role in the recent market crash so that they could help pay off their debt. Moreover, in the past 24 hours, total liquidations in the cryptocurrency market equated to $1.59 billion, with 388,375 traders liquidated.This wave of liquidations reflects heightened volatility and uncertainty, as leverage continues to unwind across crypto markets. Until BTC can reclaim $92K+, the trend remains fragile, and further downside cannot be ruled out.
Bitcoin's Technical Structure
Bitcoin's RSI is at 29, signalling oversold conditions - historically a point where reversals often occur. The last time RSI dropped this low was in August 2024, when it reached 26, after which BTC surged 118% to all-time highs within three months.
Our chart below highlights nine major corrections since 2018, ranging from -19% to -74%, showing that volatility is a normal part of Bitcoin’s long-term cycle. Notably, the average bounce following these dips has been 206%, reinforcing that sharp pullbacks have consistently presented strong opportunities for new buyers and future holders looking to capitalise on Bitcoin’s long-term growth.
Largest Hack in Crypto History - Bybit
Bybit suffered a record-breaking $1.4 billion hack, with North Korea’s Lazarus Group identified as the main suspect. Hackers exploited Bybit’s ETH cold wallet, stealing 401,347 ETH and staked ETH tokens. Despite the breach, Bybit’s reserves remain fully backed, as confirmed by its independent auditor, Hacken, even after $5 billion+ in withdrawals. CEO Ben Zhou reassured users that all funds remain 1:1 backed, ensuring solvency even in the event of a full withdrawal. To stabilise operations, Binance and individual investors provided emergency liquidity to bolster Bybit’s treasury, preventing a liquidity crunch
The market reacted negatively, with BTC dropping 4.6% from $99.5K to $95K and ETH falling 7.7% from $2,840 to $2,623, as concerns mounted over potential liquidation of stolen ETH. The sell-off highlights the market’s sensitivity to centralised exchange exploits and the risks of holding assets on such platforms. While Bybit’s reassurances prevented a deeper crash, traders remain cautious, monitoring further developments. Notably, this event demonstrated the growing maturity of the crypto industry, where swift intervention from major players helped prevent prolonged instability.
Solana's Price Action
Last week, we highlighted Solana’s upcoming token unlocks and the potential turbulence ahead. As expected, SOL has faced significant pressure, with bearish catalysts weighing on price action. Over 11.2 million SOL (worth ~$2B) is set to unlock on March 1, with further phased unlocks to follow.
- The chart above shows Solana's performance compared to the top 125 altcoins. Solana was down 17.15% compared to the other altcoins which are only down 10.11% on the 23rd.
Beyond the supply overhang, sentiment has been further hit by a wave of meme coin scams (most notably the Libra token debacle) which wiped Solana’s meme coin market cap from $25B to under $9B in a month. Adding to uncertainty, Wintermute recently pulled $38M in SOL from Binance, fuelling speculation of potential liquidations. However, we believe SOL is approaching a bottom, likely before or around March 1, setting up a classic “buy the news” opportunity once the unlock passes and sellers are absorbed.
Vaneck and Saylor Want BTC to Reduce US Debt
Michael Saylor is doubling down on his Bitcoin advocacy, now pushing for the U.S. to acquire 20% of all BTC (roughly 4.2 million coins) as a strategic reserve to strengthen the dollar and tackle the $36.2T national debt. Speaking at CPAC 2025 and later presenting to the SEC’s Crypto Task Force, he claimed this $413.9B investment could generate up to $81T in wealth for the Treasury if Bitcoin appreciates as expected. His pitch? The U.S. should fund it before China or Russia get ahead.
- The odds of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve this year in 2025 is currently at a 46% chance on Polymarket
Meanwhile, VanEck’s latest research suggests a more conservative approach, modelling that a 1M BTC reserve (as proposed in Senator Cynthia Lummis’s BITCOIN Act) could offset 18% of the debt by 2049 - assuming a 25% annual price growth to $21M per BTC. While Saylor’s vision is bold and high-risk, the broader takeaway is clear: Bitcoin as a national reserve asset is becoming a serious conversation in 2025. Whether the U.S. takes action remains to be seen, but the race for BTC is heating up.